Iran Deal May Require Trump Compromise 08/07 06:31

   To reach a deal with Iran that reopens the economically vital Strait of 
Hormuz, President Donald Trump may need to do something out of character -- 
compromise.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- To reach a deal with Iran that reopens the economically 
vital Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump may need to do something out of 
character -- compromise.

   Any concession would be tough for the Republican president, who has insisted 
there is no truth to his sagging poll numbers, the sluggish economy and the 
U.S. military's dwindling stockpiles of key weapons following the Iran war he 
launched with Israel more than five months ago.

   "He divides the world into winners and losers, and this would make him a 
loser," said Eliot Cohen, who served as counselor of the State Department in 
the George W. Bush administration. "And the image of being a loser, I think, 
would be intolerable for him."

   The sticking point has been over control of the Strait of Hormuz, through 
which 20% of the world's oil normally flows. While both sides say a deal is 
close, the Trump administration has ruled out any arrangement that would cement 
Iran's grip over the Persian Gulf waterway, including Tehran charging fees.

   But Iran has insisted on some measure of control, saying the strait will not 
go back to being an open international waterway as it was before the war. 
Despite thousands of U.S. strikes, Iran can still fire drones and missiles at 
vessels, giving it a chokehold over commercial shipping.

   Cohen said yielding ground to Iran would be difficult for the president, 
even if the conflict keeps gasoline prices elevated and poses problems for 
Republicans in November's midterm elections.

   But David Schenker, a former State Department official in the first Trump 
administration, said the increasing economic pressure may actually prompt Trump 
to compromise on the strait, even if it's likely to have profound implications 
on global trade.

   "There will be a lot of spin both ways, but my guess is that the president 
has tipped his hand as to the urgency for him of resolving the crisis," said 
Schenker, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "This 
is a concession he may very well be willing to make."

   Trump says weapons stockpiles are 'a little bit tighter'

   Trump, however, has so far conceded little about the war.

   He posted on social media Thursday that the U.S. military still has "massive 
amounts" of weapons and that large amounts are being manufactured. He 
threatened jail time for the alleged "leakers" of information on the nation's 
weapons stockpiles.

   Trump was referencing a Washington Post story that reported his frustration 
with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the shrinking inventories of advanced 
weapons, as the Cabinet had gathered at Camp David last week.

   A senior administration official said there had been a "robust and healthy" 
discussion about Iran in the Cabinet meeting and would not provide additional 
details except to say there had not been a "knock-down, drag-out fight" over 
the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal 
administration deliberations.

   Experts say the U.S. military is running short on weapons like advanced 
missile interceptors that have defended American troops from Iranian attacks. 
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, 
has released reports on declining inventories based on budget documents and 
other public information.

   When asked later about weapons stockpiles, Trump told reporters that "we 
need more all the time." He claimed that certain kinds of munitions are in 
"virtually unlimited supply" and others are "a little bit tighter." He didn't 
offer more specifics.

   He insisted that "we're in great shape. But, with that being said, we always 
want more. We have to have more," noting that the military could tap into U.S. 
supplies of munitions around the world if needed.

   Hegseth was on Capitol Hill this week, meeting privately with Republican 
senators as he makes the case for billions of dollars in additional Pentagon 
spending as part of a major GOP budget package.

   Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat and former Navy pilot, said the weapons 
shortfall stems from a war that lacked a well-defined goal and strategy beyond 
striking more than 14,000 targets.

   "My contention on this is, if you knew what the goal is, maybe the target 
list would have been 500 targets. Maybe it would have been 200 targets," Kelly 
said, adding the Pentagon wants "billions and billions of dollars to fix their 
self-inflicted problem."

   Trump has made a dubious claim about polling

   Trump also has claimed in a social media post Tuesday that his polling 
numbers are the best "they have ever been." He cited accomplishments including 
employment numbers and the "Denuclearization of Iran."

   But about two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war with Iran has not been 
worthwhile, according to a poll from late July by The Associated Press-NORC 
Center for Public Affairs Research. That includes the vast majority of 
Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.

   On employment, the United States had nearly 159 million jobs in June, not 
including farmworkers, which was a record. In Trump's second term, however, job 
growth has slowed considerably.

   Trump also continues to claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open to 
commercial shipping. He said Thursday that the strait is "sort of open right 
now" and pointed to the Navy's blockade of Iranian ports.

   "But they can always shoot something, they always have something or drop a 
mine," Trump said of Iran. "And if you have one mine sitting out there, you 
sort of mess things up because people don't want to take their billion-dollar 
boats and accidentally get hit by a mine."

   At least two ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, while 
several others reported near misses or warnings from entities claiming to 
represent Iran's Revolutionary Guard, according to maritime data company 
Lloyd's List Intelligence.

   Vessel traffic through the strait increased to 84 transits last week, up 
from 45 the week before. But traffic is still far below the more than 700 
transits seen in a typical week before the crisis, Lloyd's List said.

   A deal over the Strait of Hormuz could hinge on fees

   U.S. and Iranian officials say they are close to reaching an agreement to 
reopen the strait. That is even as the U.S. military insists the strait is open 
through a route it helps oversee near Oman's coast, saying this week that it 
"remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the 
international waterway."

   The Associated Press reported Wednesday that the potential deal is being 
portrayed as a temporary solution to the dispute over the strait, and that it 
would allow ships to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route 
and exit through an Omani-controlled route.

   The Trump administration has said repeatedly that it is strongly opposed to 
any arrangement that would see Iran charge fees.

   Any temporary routes through the waterway will not have tolls, charges or 
other impediments, according to a U.S. official not authorized to comment 
publicly who spoke Thursday on condition of anonymity. The official said 
Trump's preferred choice is diplomacy and he "holds all the cards" in dealing 
with Iran.